The Current and Future State of Mobile
Posted by Recently there has been a lot of buzz around the mobile space, with new and ever-improving phones and tablets trying to vie for the lead in this emerging space. There are many thoughts in the industry in general regarding “how does mobile fit into my current business?” or “how can I incorporate tablets into my workforce?”. These questions reflect the current state of mobile: mobile is here, mobile is growing, mobile enterprises are innovating and providing value, and importantly, there is a differentiation and delineation between mobile and desktop computing. It is very important to recognize these factors, and to have a strategy for moving mobile forward within your enterprise.
Kevin Lynch, CTO of Adobe Systems recently released data to support Adobe’s findings in the current state and trends of mobile. It’s a great read and highlights the increasing availability and bandwidth of mobile Internet, the increasing capability in mobile processing power, stabilization and maturation of batteries, and the growing range of form factors and input models that applications will need to support.
From the article:
We are in the midst of a revolution across a variety of screens, with new input methods, new formats, and new distribution models. This revolution is being fueled by several fundamental drivers: processing power growth, powerful portable batteries, increasing bandwidth for wireless Internet connectivity, and a wide array of screen sizes and device form factors.
This “multiscreen” revolution represents the growing number and diversity of screens in our daily lives – PCs, smartphones, tablets, TVs and more – as well as our increasing ability to interact with content and applications across screens, and the interconnections between them.
As I mentioned earlier, this is a great summary of the current state of the mobile industry. However, it is up to each of us to continue looking ahead and think about where the industry is heading.
Lynch’s figures highlight the increasing number of mobile Internet users, and that this number is expected to surpass Internet users of traditional desktop computers.
source: Adobe Systems
This expectation falls directly in line with the recent statistic that sales for smartphone devices surpassed traditional computers in Q4 2010.
source: CNN Money
The rise of cloud computing and reliance upon the Internet is leading to a new breed of devices. This is reflected by the ever growing popularity of smart phones and tablets, the rise of home-theater computers such as Google TV, or Apple TV, as well as the “dummy terminal” revival with the Chromium operating system. As designers and implementers, we must be able to understand and address all form factors, as well as new and emerging interaction paradigms.
It has long been predicted that there will be a convergence in mobile and desktop computing, and it appears that we are finally seeing real progress in this space. Motorola recently unveiled the Atrix smart phone. The Atrix is the first ever smartphone that can be inserted into a docking station and used as a laptop or desktop computer, as well as a media center.
The hardware specs for this device are equivalent with (if not better than) netbooks from 2 years ago: 1GHz dual-core processor, 1 GB of RAM, 16 GB of internal storage, with support for up to 32 GB additional storage via SD memory cards.
Since this is the first generation of such a device, there are likely quirks and issues. However, this is bound to get better as the technology matures. Similarly, the amount of computing power that will be packed into these devices will continue to increase a la Moore’s Law.
The implications of such a device could have profound effects upon the industry in general. It is doubtful that desktop computing will ever cease to be, especially since you can pack a lot more computing power in a desktop than you can a device that fits into your pocket. However, it is very realistic that the desktop computing space would be marginalized to “power users” with specialized needs and tasks.
With this in mind, is it unreasonable to think that Lynch’s figures could be reworked to emphasize this hypothetical convergence?
It isn’t difficult to imagine that in a few years you could be carrying around a device that is your all-encompassing technical solution. It could power your productivity tools, Internet browsing and communications, gaming, or even development environment.
Applications of this nature will need to support a variety of form factors and input methods. In the current state of the industry, solutions are often built to support multiple form factors and paradigms on different devices. A mobile solution targets a mobile device, a TV-based solution targets either a TV or HTPC solution, and a desktop solution targets the desktop paradigm. With the convergence of devices/paradigms, your application may need to support all of these input methods and form factors in a single solution that morphs to the current input state.
We could speculate on this topic for hours... new input methods, new user interactions, new human-device relationships. There are implications of security: if you lose your phone, you’ve now also lost your computer. Additionally, would this make it easier for someone to steal your identity?
For a moment, think about how the world around you would change. Perhaps you would be in a coffee shop, where there are multiple docking stations. You walk up to one, insert your phone, and start computing. In the same vein, think about your home environment, vs office environment, vs. being in a hotel. Many of us already carry laptop computers so that we can “take the office with us”. If this paradigm becomes commonplace, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect to be able to compute from anywhere, while only having to carry a device that is small enough to fit in your pocket.
Now think even farther into the future... you are on the latest and greatest passenger airplane, and 6 hours from your destination. Every seat is outfitted with a touch screen and mobile device dock. Should you watch a movie, read a book, talk to your friends, play a game, surf the web, or do some work?
-
Nick
04.26.11 at 3:10 PM
Incredibly insightful article.