Looking Back, Moving Forward
Posted by Technology in 2011 is all about "me"—UX Predictions for the Coming Year
The word technology, by definition, has a very sterile, metallic, and hands-off connotation. But this is changing. Technology is becoming increasingly intimate, customizable and personal.
People now access the same sites and services using different applications that suit their own personal taste. For example, Feedly, and Reeder provide a different (and some would argue, better) experience than Google Reader. Flipboard, Flud, and TweetMag allow users to read their Facebook, RSS, or Twitter feeds in a more visual and casual way. And as a person moves from computer, to tablet, to mobile device, we want a different user experience to fit the moment.
In 2011, we expect this trend will continue as people demand interfaces and interactions that make sense to them. 2011 will become the year of refinement in mobility. Communities of users will finally settle into a comfortable place and the social aspect will continue to become increasingly personal. Businesses, for better or for worse, will begin to release their brands into the mobile space, uncharted territory for most, and the intimate connection between businesses and consumers will begin to take on new meaning. Building services in a closed eco-system will become an increasingly difficult endeavor. Technology in 2011 is all about “me.”
With that in mind, our UX team put together a list of trends we saw play out in 2010 and expect to continue in 2011. While there are a million New Year articles, we hope this provides a different perspective—one of technology, business, and overall trends we believe will shape the way we interact with technology, and each other. Enjoy!
Authored by Joe Force, UX Specialist, Universal Mind (@joe4ce)
with contributions from the UX Team.
Native Interaction is King
The idea of “Build Once, Deploy to Many” is getting increasingly difficult if you want an application that connects with the target audience. Building a one size fits all application on multiple devices interrupts the experience that users are accustomed to. iPhone, Android, and Windows Phone 7 have drastically different interfaces and interactions. To ignore the unique user experience built into each device is to ignore the way your users want to work/play.
This is not exclusive to mobile devices, OSes or browsers. Netflix does an excellent job of building applications native to the device. Netflix on the XBox 360 works and feels like a native application. The same holds true for Netflix on the Wii.
While building a native experience for each device or platform takes a lot of time and effort, ultimately, you will be rewarded by satisfied customers. Nothing feels more uninspired than a ported application. And applications that don’t connect with the users, quickly get deleted. As Sr. UX Specialist, Joe Johnston (@merhl), puts it, “Build once, deploy everywhere is a unicorn.”
For an example of multi-device strategy, check out this video:
In Some Ways, 2011 Will Feel a Lot Like 1997
1997 was the year Internet Explorer came of age, and quickly destroyed Netscape. When IE4 was released, Netscape owned 72% of the browser market. IE4 had some pretty innovative (and proprietary, non W3C compliant) features. To build a site that looked good in both browsers required some thoughtful design and a lot of JavaScript. Sound familiar?
The web experience is pretty fractured right now with five different browsers (plus various flavors of mobile browsers) trying to build the “best” HTML 5 capabilities and showcase them in new ways (Chrome Apps, plugins and add-ons are a perfect example of the ‘disjointed web’). Personally though, we feel that the web is nowhere near dead and people will continue to use browsers as their primary way of consuming data on the Internet in the near future. So we must live with the inconsistencies, or demand standards.
Competition breeds innovative new ideas, but building a consistent web experience across multiple browsers is going to be increasingly difficult in the near-term as each browser one-ups each other with the feature of the week. When the dust settles, we will benefit. But you may need to have Chrome, Firefox and IE (or Safari) at the ready to get get the best browsing experience from site to site.
In the meantime, mobile devices will have a unique advantage of building apps with HTML/CSS/JS as they can develop exclusively for the native browser on the device.
Observations and Predictions for 2011
Netflix Killed the Video Store (and Will Take Over Movie Distribution)
If you feel old because you remember the saying “Be Kind, Rewind,” just wait. You’ll soon have to explain to a younger generation the idea of physically going to a video store, looking for the movie you wanted (and hoping it is in stock), and remembering to return it without late fees.
- Netflix “played nice” with the movie industry, allowing movie companies 30 days to sell DVDs without competition from Netflix. This was a brilliant move on Netflix part as the movie companies opened their cache of movies to Netflix, but are now realizing it wasn’t Netflix (or Redbox) killing their sales; people just aren’t that into buying DVDs/Blu-Ray. In 2011, Netflix will continue to tighten the noose around the big movie companies, ultimately owning movie distribution. Something that nobody expected from a company that shipped DVDs by mail.
- Redbox (and the ilk) will have their best year ever (though it may be a swan song), but the business model is ultimately flawed as Netflix and On-Demand video services take over (for good).
Location-based Check-in Services Need to Get Real (or Get Lost)
The novelty of checking-in and letting everyone know where you are is wearing off. 2011 will be a pivotal year for services like Foursquare, Facebook Places, Gowalla, etc. to either make it useful, or die trying. Getting badges, coupons, or attaboys is not enough. It will be interesting to see what these services do to stay relevant before the masses realize they are broadcasting their every move, without much personal benefit.
Mobile Will Be Huge and Be Even More Important to Company Strategies in 2011
While this is a bit of a no-brainer, smartphones currently account for approximately 19% of all mobile phones. This number is expected to jump to more than 50% in 2011. In the U.S. alone, that means the number of smartphone users will jump from ~60 million to ~143 million smartphones.
Yet many companies do not have a smartphone strategy. Building your site or app for smartphones is not as simple as taking what you have, and making it smaller. What works on the desktop rarely translates to what works on mobile devices. Start planning (aggressively), now, or you may be left in the dust by your competition.
Two simple questions to ask yourself. Does your website work effortlessly on a mobile device? Is your product or service accessible via a smartphone? If you’ve answered no to either of these questions, you may want to schedule some time on Monday to start the process.
—contribution from Joe Johnston, Sr. UX Specialist, Universal Mind (@merhl)
Devices Will No Longer Work Independently of One Another
Onstar allows us to unlock our cars from our phone. Apple AirPlay lets us start watching a movie on our iPad and then instantly share that video with our friends on our TV. 2011 will only see more of these cross device experiences as developers are given the tools needed to make such interactions appear seamless to the user. Our devices will not only know what is around them, but will intuitively know how they can interact with each other.
—contribution from Peiter Buick, UX Specialist
Microsoft Will Be Looked at as an Innovative Company, For the First Time in Years
Second generation Kinect games will push the envelope on how we navigate and interact with our set top boxes. (XBox 360 is not just a gaming console.)
- Windows Phone 7 will become a contender in the mobile space by summer of 2011. It’s an innovative alternative to current Mobile OSes, and by mid-year, Microsoft will have resolved most of the early complaints (multi-tasking, cut/paste). It’s integration with Xbox 360 will also give game developers a good reason to consider building WP7/Xbox Live Apps.
- As I stated above, XBox 360 is not just a gaming console. As Microsoft closes in on an installed base of close to 50 million units, Microsoft stands in the pole position to become the only set top box you need. The addition of ESPN was just the beginning of bringing exclusive content to the XBox. Look for HBO and others to follow suit.
- Look for the Kinect to change the way we shop. Wondering how that outfit on the Anthropologie catalog cover would look/fit on you? Try it on, move around, change the color. The upsale potential for retailers is huge. Buy the whole outfit, instantly, in your size (automatically measured by the Kinect).
The Tablet market will still belong to Apple in 2011
The Samsung Galaxy Tab and Dell Streak already exist in the wild, and RIM’s Playbook will most likely be released in March. And with CES coming up this week, Motorola and a slew of other hardware companies should be announcing a variety of tablets to be shipped in the first half of 2011. In the meantime, the “iPad 2” is expected in a matter of weeks.
The iPad is already a great device. And many of the perceived “flaws” will certainly be fixed with the 2nd generation hardware. So while Apple has had their device in the hands of millions for months, everyone else is *still* figuring out their tablet strategy. This should easily give Apple the upper-hand for 2011.—contribution from Joe Johnston, Sr. UX Specialist, Universal Mind (@merhl)
Print and Web. The Rumors of their Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Digital Publications have been met with great fanfare, then slumping sales. The space is tough. Traditional publications don’t make it on subscriptions alone. And when the digital versions are much more expensive than the one at the magazine stand, it becomes a tough sell. In 2011, Digital Publications will need to figure out how to differentiate themselves from their print cousin, while providing a more feature-rich experience than the web. Someone WILL figure out the right mix, but until then, Digital Publications will remain somewhat of an experiment, not part of a publishers main revenue stream.
—contribution from Joe Johnston, Sr. UX Specialist, Universal Mind (@merhl)
And one wild guess, just for fun...
Apple and Google Will Announce Their Own Cellular Networks
If they do, will they resemble what is currently out there, or will it be a radical departure from the current technology?
—contribution from Joe Johnston, Sr. UX Specialist, Universal Mind (@merhl)
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